23. As the UK government has acknowledged in its Tackling Child Sexual Abuse Strategy (2021):

“it is difficult to truly understand the scale of offending and how many victims and survivors remain unidentified because of under-reporting, under-identification of victims and survivors by agencies, and a lack of robust survey data.”^[1]

For these reasons, the Inquiry agrees that it is difficult to measure accurately the scale of child sexual abuse in England and Wales. The Inquiry is in no doubt, however, that the scale of abuse and exploitation is considerably greater than is currently recorded by the statutory agencies. This was a conclusion in nearly every investigation conducted by the Inquiry.

Data in relation to physical or contact sexual abuse

24. One recent estimate – described as “conservative” – has suggested that around 500,000 children are abused in a single year.^[2]

25. There is no consistent approach to the recording of data, including, at its most basic, the use of different reporting periods. Some data refer to the financial year, other data to the calendar year or a different timeframe.

25.1. In the year ending September 2021, police forces recorded a total of 67,675 sexual offences against children.^[3] This figure is based on analysing police recorded crime figures where offences include reference to the victim’s age, including some specific child sexual abuse offences where the child is under 13 or under 16 years old. However, this may not record all child sexual abuse offences. For example, there is no specific offence code for sexual assault where the victim is aged over 13 but is under 16 years old.

25.2. In the year ending December 2020, there were nearly 950 prosecutions for raping a child aged under 13 or under 16 years old, just under 1,000 prosecutions for sexual assaults on a child under 13 years old and more than 1,470 prosecutions for sexual activity with a child under 13 or under 16 years old.^[4]

25.3. Local authority data for England record the primary reason why children are made the subject of a child protection plan. In 2019/20, 2,600 children in England were placed on child protection plans under the primary category of sexual abuse.^[5]

25.4. These figures for children subject to child protection plans are comparatively low when compared with the assessments conducted by children’s services which show an increase in identification of child sexual abuse and exploitation as a risk factor. In the year ending March 2020, child sexual abuse was identified as a risk factor in 29,640 assessments and child sexual exploitation in 16,830 assessments.^[6]

26. As a result of the lack of a coherent set of data, it is difficult to gain a comprehensive understanding of the scale of child sexual abuse in circumstances where, as demonstrated by the Inquiry’s work, sexual abuse and the estimated number of perpetrators continue to rise.

Data relating to online-facilitated child sexual abuse

Child sexual abuse material online

27. The proliferation in online child sexual abuse material is of significant concern. In the calendar year ending 2020, the IWF processed over 153,000 reports containing child sexual abuse imagery or UK-hosted non-photographic child sexual abuse imagery. The figures rose again in the year ending 2021, with more than 250,000 URLs (Uniform Resource Locators) confirmed to contain images or videos of child sexual abuse.^[7] A URL is the specific location where a file is saved online. Some URLs can contain thousands of images and videos.

Figure B.2: Number of reports of webpages assessed as containing child sexual abuse images, from 2017 to 2021
Source: See data compendium to this report

28. The IWF noted year-on-year increases in reports of webpages that were found to contain child sexual abuse imagery between 2017 and 2021.^[8] In particular, the number of reports of webpages containing self-generated imagery (a naked or partially naked image of a child taken by that child) increased almost 13-fold from nearly 13,700 in 2017 to over 182,000 in 2021 (Figure B.3).

Figure B.3: Number of webpages containing self-generated child sexual abuse images, from 2017 to 2021
Source: See data compendium to this report

29. There were sharp increases in self-generated images depicting 7 to 10-year-olds and in particular 11 to 13-year-olds (Figure B.4, in which ‘other’ relates to children for whom the specific age range could not be identified). Some self-generated imagery involved perpetrators encouraging children to involve their brother or sister in the abuse.^[9]

Figure B.4: Reports assessed as self-generated child sexual abuse images, from 2017 to 2021, by age of victim
Source: See data compendium to this report

Data relating to perpetrators

30. It is also difficult to establish the number of perpetrators who sexually abuse children.

31. Official data state that in the year ending December 2020, 4,649 individuals were convicted of child sexual abuse offences (Figure B.5).^[10] This figure also shows a decline in the number of prosecutions since 2016 (the criminal justice response is examined in further detail in Part G).

Figure B.5: Number of defendants prosecuted and convicted for child sexual abuse offences from 2016 to 2020
Source: Ministry of Justice, Criminal Justice Statistics Quarterly, year to December 2020

32. This number of convicted individuals is in stark contrast with the National Crime Agency’s 2021 estimate that there were between 550,000 and 850,000 individuals in the UK identified by law enforcement as posing varying degrees of sexual risk to children.^[11] These figures did not, however, include non-UK offenders or children who sexually abuse other children and were therefore likely to be an underestimate. The gap between these two figures is a matter of concern as it suggests there are far more children being abused or at risk of being abused than are being identified by local authority and local police crime-recording data.

33. In the UK in 2019, the Lucy Faithfull Foundation, which provides advice and preventive resources for those with concerns about their own or another’s abusive sexual behaviour, was contacted 94,342 times by people seeking help through its website and helpline.^[12] Between March–May and September–December 2020, the average number of weekly users of Stop It Now! Get Help (the offender-focussed website maintained by the Lucy Faithfull Foundation) increased by 128 percent.^[13] In 2020/21, there was a significant increase in the number of young people contacting the Lucy Faithfull Foundation for advice and support, including 155 calls, chats or emails from under 18-year-olds who had committed a sexual offence online – this was a 177 percent increase compared with 2019/20.^[14]

Global scale

34. The pattern identified in England and Wales is also consistent with the global trend of rising levels of child sexual abuse. In its Global Threat Assessment 2021, the WeProtect Global Alliance provided a snapshot of the wider scale of the problem.

Figure B.6: The scale of the challenge
Source: INQ006749_004

35. The internet and social media platforms have created new and increased opportunities to offend, with no foreseeable end to the growing demand for child sexual abuse imagery and no realistic prospect that perpetrators will stop in their pursuit of sexual gratification at the expense of harm to children. It is a national and global crisis.

36. It is this horrifying picture that underpins the Inquiry’s recommendations in this report and the need for urgent action by both State and non-State institutions. Protecting children from sexual abuse and exploitation, and its often lifelong harmful consequences, is of fundamental importance to future generations.